Care workers – summary of hypothetical scenarios
We looked at three hypothetical future scenarios which would impact on recruitment, training and retention of care workers. The following summarises:
- the key elements of each scenario
- the challenges and opportunities these offer, and
- the actions that could be taken in order to maximise the opportunities.
A sunny outlook – but is social care in the shade?
UK remains within EEA, economy performs strongly, restrictions are placed unqualified migrants, and NHS is to receive more funding.
Scenario
- UK remains in European Economic Area (EEA), but restrictions made on unqualified EEA migrants.
- NHS receives more funding to retain clinicians.
- Cross-sector investment makes care homes more sustainable and generates more attractive salaries and careers.
Challenges
- Gap between demand and supply of care workers increases.
- Informal carers take on more responsibilities.
- Risk of greater split between NHS and social care.
Opportunities
- New roles (e.g. care co-ordinators) attracts and retains staff.
- Fast-track older workers looking for career change.
- Expansion of community-based smaller providers and personal assistants.
Actions
- Incentivise and reward the whole care workforce, including volunteers and unpaid carers.
- Develop and market a wider range of care roles.
- Change organisation cultures to attract and retain staff, including more user involvement in recruitment
Read more: Scenario: A sunny outlook – but is social care in the shade?
Weathering the storm
UK leaves EEA, leading to economic uncertainty and big companies disinvesting. Immigration drops, apprenticeships and workplace qualifications increase.
Scenario
- Failing economy narrows employment choices.
- Migration falls, reducing supply of labour.
- Pace of health and care integration is variable.
- Apprenticeships and workplace qualifications are extended.
Challenges
- Gap between demand and supply of care workers increases.
- New recruits do not share the values required for care work.
Opportunities
- Expansion of community-based micro-providers and personal assistants.
- NHS brand could be used to attract care workers.
Actions
- Ensure focus on values in training and recruitment including apprenticeships.
- Attract care workers from overseas, alongside NHS.
Read more: Scenario: Weathering the storm
A change in the weather
UK remains in the EU, public spending increases, including investment in training for carer workers. New employment rights raise the minimum wage.
Scenario
- UK remains in EU.
- Spending on local government increases.
- Investment in education and training in care sector increases.
- Zero-hours contracts outlawed.
- Poor economy slows migration.
- Estates tax helps to fund cost of care.
Challenges
- Quality of education and training may not improve.
- Health and care integration remains limited and workforce path is unclear.
- Professionalisation drives out personalisation.
Opportunities
- Technology supports remote caring.
- More care delivered by those who do not require qualifications.
Actions
- Develop person-centred education and training.
- Improve the image of the sector through technology and benefits to service users.
- Evaluate and learn from existing workforce development models and pilots.
Read more: Scenario: A change in the weather