Care workers – summary of hypothetical scenarios

We looked at three hypothetical future scenarios which would impact on recruitment, training and retention of care workers. The following summarises:

A sunny outlook – but is social care in the shade?

UK remains within EEA, economy performs strongly, restrictions are placed unqualified migrants, and NHS is to receive more funding.

Scenario

  • UK remains in European Economic Area (EEA), but restrictions made on unqualified EEA migrants.
  • NHS receives more funding to retain clinicians.
  • Cross-sector investment makes care homes more sustainable and generates more attractive salaries and careers.

Challenges

  • Gap between demand and supply of care workers increases.
  • Informal carers take on more responsibilities.
  • Risk of greater split between NHS and social care.

Opportunities

  • New roles (e.g. care co-ordinators) attracts and retains staff.
  • Fast-track older workers looking for career change.
  • Expansion of community-based smaller providers and personal assistants.

Actions

  • Incentivise and reward the whole care workforce, including volunteers and unpaid carers.
  • Develop and market a wider range of care roles.
  • Change organisation cultures to attract and retain staff, including more user involvement in recruitment

Read more: Scenario: A sunny outlook – but is social care in the shade?


Weathering the storm

UK leaves EEA, leading to economic uncertainty and big companies disinvesting. Immigration drops, apprenticeships and workplace qualifications increase.

Scenario

  • Failing economy narrows employment choices.
  • Migration falls, reducing supply of labour.
  • Pace of health and care integration is variable.
  • Apprenticeships and workplace qualifications are extended.

Challenges

  • Gap between demand and supply of care workers increases.
  • New recruits do not share the values required for care work.

Opportunities

  • Expansion of community-based micro-providers and personal assistants.
  • NHS brand could be used to attract care workers.

Actions

  • Ensure focus on values in training and recruitment including apprenticeships.
  • Attract care workers from overseas, alongside NHS.

Read more: Scenario: Weathering the storm


A change in the weather

UK remains in the EU, public spending increases, including investment in training for carer workers. New employment rights raise the minimum wage.

Scenario

  • UK remains in EU.
  • Spending on local government increases.
  • Investment in education and training in care sector increases.
  • Zero-hours contracts outlawed.
  • Poor economy slows migration.
  • Estates tax helps to fund cost of care.

Challenges

  • Quality of education and training may not improve.
  • Health and care integration remains limited and workforce path is unclear.
  • Professionalisation drives out personalisation.

Opportunities

  • Technology supports remote caring.
  • More care delivered by those who do not require qualifications.

Actions

  • Develop person-centred education and training.
  • Improve the image of the sector through technology and benefits to service users.
  • Evaluate and learn from existing workforce development models and pilots.

Read more: Scenario: A change in the weather